A Lasting Peace

When I last weighed in on Israel's version of neighborhood diplomacy, we were one week into a fairly limited offensive into Gaza. In that post I was very supportive of Israel's actions, but I've taken a considerable turn now.

I cannot sit back and condone the endless bombing that is killing more civilian children than Hezbollah fighters. An air strike last week killed four U.N. observers in southern Lebanon, an incident that I don't think was completely intentional, but they had to have been aiming closer to that outpost than they should've been (it should be noted in that bombing that the commander of the U.N. observers called the Israelis many times with their exact coordinates so that Israeli jets could avoid killing them). Even after turning southern Lebanon and half of Beirut into a big crater, rockets still rain down on Israeli cities. Therein lies the truth: Israel hasn't really accomplished anything.

I will take this opportunity to say that, while casualties resulting from these rockets are very unfortunate, they pale in comparison to civilian casualties of Israeli airstrikes, and they can't be used to justify these killings.

I don't like Hezbollah, and in the unlikelihood that anything good comes out of this ordeal, it will be the disarming (and maybe destruction) of Hezbollah. While I admire their trying to do a thorough job, Israel has done as much as they can militarily without carpet bombing all of Lebanon. Before it becomes blazingly obvious that guerrillas have bested the Israelis again, Israel needs to stop all military action and finish things with negotiations. That way, when Hezbollah renews attacks on Israeli forces and civilians (and you can bet they will), Hezbollah will be the bad guy, not Israel.

Hezbollah has a lot of respect in the Arab world because they are the only group that's beaten Israel in an armed conflict, the other Lebanon war (what many equate as Israel's version of the Vietnam War). Hezbollah used guerilla tactics, and faced with an enemy that they couldn't really fight and mounting casualties, Israel left Lebanon in shame. A repeat of history will be very bad for Israel's standing in the world. The only thing holding back the Arab hordes is the image that Israel is invincible. Take that away and you've got nothing.

Now that I've elaborated on why this war has gone far enough, I'm going to take on the Bush administration. Yes, I'm still talking about Israel-Lebanon. In a move that doesn't surprise me, Bush claims to want peace, but an immediate cease-fire is bad because it won't last. Well, duh! The point of a cease-fire is to stop the fighting for a couple weeks so that the two sides can negotiate a peace that will last. Anybody with half a brain could tell you that a cease-fire is never intended to be permanent. W's not so hidden motive here is to let Israel finish the job (fairly messy work, politically), while appearing to broker a non-violent solution. Well, the first half of the plan's working, but the charade's pretty bad.

A lasting peace isn't all that hard to come by, and even Condi could handle it. You negotiate one of those evil ceasefires, make it last for 1 week to start with. Then you have negotiations between Israel and Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, possibly Iran, and you'll have to include the Lebanese government in there somewhere. We wouldn't just throw these arch enemies in a room somewhere and tell them to work out their differences nonviolently. There would be a large, mutlinational delegation (possibly from the U.N.) including the U.S.A., Egypt, Russia, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the U.K., at the bare minimum. Of course, no solution will be present after one week, but because they have made progress, the parties will agree to extend the ceasefire another two weeks. After a few months, a ceasefire that wasn't meant to last has followed a logical series of events and led to an agreement that will.

The only snarl I see to a peaceful solution (besides Bush's unwillingness to find one), is that Hezbollah and probably Hamas are never going to take part in negotiations that will have to end in their destruction if any progress is to be made. That's the problem with negotiating with terrorist groups, they're only interested in fighting. Take that away, and they don't know what to do with themselves or how to get to heaven. But there's a solution to even that. Hamas and Hezbollah are already political parties in Palestine and Lebanon, if they completely disarm and focus solely on running for office, they would be one of the first political parties in the mid-east that isn't connected to a militia. And they could still advance their cause if in fact they do reflect the will of the people. You can bet that that's something Bush and Israel won't go for, but they'll have to. Would they rather some other armed political party took control of everything (like Hamas has done in Palestine and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon)? Or would it be better to deal with Hamas and Hezbollah in their neutered forms?

What we're dealing with now is a serious problem, and one of the best chances in a while to fix the bigger problem. Right now everybody is the loser, from Lebanon to Hezbollah, to Israel. It goes back to what we teach preschoolers: Don't fight, share, and we all win.